Josh Allen Takes On the Vikings Blitz on Monday Night

Josh Allen has seen this coordinator before. In six games against Brian Flores’ Miami defenses from 2019 to 2021, Allen threw 16 touchdown passes against two interceptions and the Bills won all six, Bills On SI counted. On Monday night he gets Flores again, this time running the most aggressive defense in football, as the Buffalo Bills visit the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium.

This is the game of the week for a reason. Both teams are 6-1. Buffalo has the highest-scoring offense in the league, Minnesota has the stingiest defense, and the Vikings are coming off their first loss of the season at Detroit. Somebody leaves at 7-1 and somebody leaves with a second loss.

The Blitz Problem

Minnesota does not wait for pressure. It has blitzed on 73.6 percent of dropbacks through seven games, the highest rate of the Next Gen Stats era by a wide margin, and it gets pressure on 46.4 percent of dropbacks, the best mark in the NFL. Eleven different Vikings already have at least half a sack.

Allen sounded like a quarterback who has watched a lot of film this week. “It’s not even how much they blitz; it’s how productive they are when they do blitz,” he said. “It’s hard to game plan for a team like this because there aren’t any weaknesses.”

Buffalo has an answer of its own. The Bills have allowed the third-fewest pressures on Allen this season, and he has 20 total touchdowns in seven games, 11 through the air and nine on the ground. When the pocket breaks, he is still the most dangerous runner on the field.

The Left Side Is the Question

The worry is up front. Left tackle Dion Dawkins (rib) did not practice all week and is questionable, and left guard Alec Anderson (ankle) is questionable after a limited session Saturday. Joe Brady said Dawkins does not necessarily need to practice to play. If he cannot go, Tylan Grable is the likely fill-in at left tackle, and Austin Corbett would step in for Anderson. Both calls come with inactives 90 minutes before kickoff.

The receiver room is healthier. Joshua Palmer (hamstring) is out, but DJ Moore, Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid all shed their red non-contact jerseys and carry no designation. Moore caught a touchdown in last week’s 36-10 rout of Baltimore.

Wentz Gets the Ball

Minnesota is without Kyler Murray (hamstring), so Carson Wentz makes his second start of the season. His first was a 9-3 win at Chicago in Week 2, when he went 11 of 20 for 143 yards and let the defense do the rest. Receiver Jauan Jennings and running back Demond Claiborne are also out, which puts even more on Flores’ unit to keep this one ugly.

Smacktok pick lean: Lean higher on Josh Allen rushing attempts. Minnesota sends extra rushers on nearly three of every four dropbacks, and Allen already has nine rushing touchdowns, so the scrambles and designed runs should come. If Dawkins and Anderson are both inactive, keep the Allen rushing lean and add Dalton Kincaid receptions, since a patched-up left side points to quick throws over the middle.