Carlos Alcaraz vs. Matteo Berrettini: Paris Masters Preview

Carlos Alcaraz plays Matteo Berrettini in the Paris Masters round of 16 on Thursday after rallying from 4-1 down in a tiebreak to beat Alex Michelsen 7-6 (4), 6-3. That's six straight wins indoors for Alcaraz, and with Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev already gone, the draw has opened right up for him.

This is a tournament Alcaraz has never won. His best Paris result is a 2022 quarterfinal, and he said before the week started he's sure he'll do great here at some point. "It will happen sooner than later," he said. Thursday is the next step toward making that sooner.

Alcaraz Found His Forehand

The Michelsen match was a slow burn. Alcaraz broke first, gave it right back, and trailed 4-1 in the first-set tiebreak before reeling off six straight points. ATP Tour noted he's now 39-5 on the season and 11-0 in his opening matches this year, and he came to Paris fresh off the Vienna title, where he beat Alex de Minaur 6-1, 6-4 in the final.

The numbers that matter from Wednesday: 26 winners to Michelsen's 12, and 77 percent of points won behind his second serve. "It's been a really difficult day for the top guys, but I just try not to think about it," Alcaraz said.

Berrettini Is Serving Big Again

Berrettini had never won a match at the Paris Masters before this week. Now he's won two. He won a third-set tiebreak 10-8 against Brandon Nakashima in the first round, then beat home favorite Ugo Humbert 7-6 (3), 7-5 on Wednesday.

His serve carried that one. Berrettini hit 13 aces and won 41 of 53 first-serve points, and when Humbert broke back late in the second set to level it at 5-5, Berrettini broke right back to close it out. French outlet Equipe-France reported, citing Italian broadcaster OA Sport, that he played much of the match with pain in his right elbow. Keep an eye on that early Thursday.

The Head to Head

Alcaraz leads 3-1. Their last meeting was the round of 16 at Wimbledon in 2023, a 3-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 Alcaraz win, so this is their first match since then.

The game plan is obvious for both sides. Berrettini has to serve his way into tiebreaks and hope his forehand lands. Alcaraz has to get enough returns in play to make Berrettini hit a lot of extra balls, which is exactly what he did to Michelsen once the tiebreak turned.

They're scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on Court Central. The winner gets Taylor Fritz or Arthur Fils in Friday's quarterfinals.

Smacktok pick lean: Lean higher on Berrettini's aces. He hit 13 against Humbert, and the court in Paris has been playing fast all week.

If Alcaraz gets through this one, a Friday quarterfinal against Fritz or Fils is the match this whole week has been building toward.